Thursday, January 09, 2003

MWSF03 Accuracy Report: Think Secret

Time for the second AR of the expo, if you need help understanding the scoring, see yesterday's report.

Original Predictions from Think Secret:

- $50 iApp bundle
- 802.11g
- Web browser
- iChat update (they gave it a 50% chance)
- Tablet
Think Secret got the scoop on no new iMacs, eMacs, or flat-panel displays when they posted an article defying the generally accepted idea of those releases. They also predicted no Powerbooks, iBooks, Xserve, Powermacs, or iPods.

Think Secret is one of the most reliable sites on the web, and made incredibly accurate predictions for this year's keynote. They also earn a special bonus for breaking the no iMacs, eMacs, or LCD displays story.

Base Score: 50
Correct Software Predictions:
- Safari, +20
- iPhoto 2, iMovie 3, iDVD 3, +20
- iLife $50 package, +10
Incorrect Software Predictions:
- iChat update, -5
- iPhoto 2, iMovie 3 not available for free (they are), -5
Missed Software:
- Keynote, -10
- Final Cut Express, -10
Correct Hardware Predictions:
- AirPort Extreme, +30
Incorrect Hardware Predictions:
- Tablet, -20
Missed Hardware:
- Powerbook 12" and 17", -20
Additional Points, + or -:
- "Year of the Laptop" honor, for predicting no desktop hardware, +20
- Special bonus for first reporting on the lack of desktop updates, +20

Total score: 100, from a base 50

What the hell does that mean?
Scoring 100 shows real reliabilty, although we can't forget that Think Secret still struck out when they predicted a tablet over Powerbooks. Once put in perspective, I think we'll see that Think Secret had a very respectable score.

Next Accuracy Report: LoopRumors.


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